An Exceptionally Dangerous Idea: Nuclear Negotiations with Iran

The terrorism-sponsoring regime of Iran has long sought to build a robust nuclear program for the purposes of electrical power.  (Nod – nod, wink – wink.)  Everyone knows, however, that the truth of the matter is that this program is for the development of nuclear weapons.  Evidently it is not polite to point out this blatant falsehood in diplomatic circles however.

The fact that Iran has been the world’s leading sponsor of terrorism across the globe, even currently, in the days of ISIL and al Qaida, is something that seems to be intentionally overlooked by the Obama administration though.  Iran is an implacable enemy of the United States, and has been since the Carter administration when they stormed our embassy in Tehran taking our citizens hostage.  Iran calls the United States “The Great Satan,” and refers to what was formerly our strongest ally and only democracy in the Middle East of Israel “The Little Satan.”  Iran’s former president Ahmadinejad stated publically on multiple occasions that Iran’s goal is to wipe Israel off the face of the globe.  It is a goal that is backed by the ruling mullahs of Iran.

Why we refuse to take our enemy at their word is baffling.  As Americans, including our supposed regional diplomatic experts from the State Department, we tend to look at that type of rhetoric as mere political hyperbole for their masses. However, an understanding of the Middle Eastern mindset of this Shiite nation seems to be completely absent.

This is absolutely not just political bluster on their behalf.  As Americans, we cannot conceive of people believing with such unshakeable faith that they must kill the innocent, let alone understand that these people become homicide bombers in order to become martyrs and thus enter into paradise with Allah.  Shia Islam, which nearly all Iranians practice, tells of the coming of the twelfth imam, an Islamic messiah, to unite the world under Islam and sharia (Islamic) law.  In order for the coming of their messiah, the world has to be in complete and utter bloody chaos, even if that chaos is created by the very practitioners of that faith.  What better way to do this then to launch a nuclear weapon at Allah’s hated enemy of Israel thus thrusting forth a third world war in order to hasten the return of the twelfth imam?

Currently, the United States has crippling economic sanctions in place to try and convince Iran to give up their terrorism and nuclear ambitions.  The assumption is that Iran would negotiate, as any rational nation with a Western mindset would.  After all, they know that if they launched a nuclear attack on Israel, that they would be attacked in return. Are they really that crazy that they would sacrifice themselves? Yes, looking at this situation through their eyes – their beliefs – sacrificing even millions of their own people in order to eradicate Allah’s enemy of the Little Satan and thus bringing their messiah to unite the world under Islam would well be worth their martyrdom.  Their culture does not value life like we do.  Instead, they see death, especially a martyr’s death, as a gateway to paradise.

Iran is now negotiating to conclude an “oral agreement” with the United States to restrict their nuclear weapons program in exchange for the United States to remove these economic and trade sanctions.  The Obama administration hopes to have just such a deal in place with Iran by the end of today.  Secretary of State John Kerry has bent over backwards with concessions in order to ensure that a deal – any deal – is agreed upon before April Fool’s Day is upon us.  The regional, and indeed global, ramifications of such a deal are either non-evident or not important to Secretary Kerry and President Obama.

Due to these current negotiations, our supposed ally, Saudi Arabia, is forming a coalition with other Sunni Islamic countries such as Turkey and Egypt in order to counter balance a near-future nuclear-armed Iran. Many of them want to obtain nuclear weapons of their own, accordingly.  Where Shia Iran and its proxies are already fighting against Sunni fighters in Syria, Iraq, Yemen and elsewhere in the Middle East, the Saudi Kingdom and its allies fear what an unfettered Iran with nuclear weapons will be able to do to the regional balance of power.

“But, T. Paine, I thought the deal President Obama was making with Iran was to ensure that they don’t get a nuclear weapon?” you ask.  Yeah, well, not so much.  President Obama has argued that a “verifiable” deal is the best way to ensure the stability of the Arab states because it ensures that Iran does not get a nuclear bomb.  He argues that even a military strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities would only temporarily set back its program.  This way, he argues, we can engage Iran and know when they begin their weapons program once again.  Oh yeah, and in reward for their temporary restraint in their on-going nuclear program, the United States will remove all economic and trade sanctions that were the cause of bringing Iran to the negotiating table in the first place.

Surely Iran will keep its word and cease with its weapons program though, right?  There is a concept of “taqiyya” in the Quran, Islam’s holy book, which permits faithful Muslims to lie to infidel non-Muslims if it protects the “believer” and/or furthers the cause of Islam.  It is exceptionally likely that Iran is not negotiating in good faith accordingly.  Iran’s Sunni neighbors don’t seem to believe that Iran will keep any deal stuck with the United States, and with distrust growing against America, they will all race to acquire and develop their own nuclear weapons.  It is speculated in some intelligence circles that Saudi Arabia might simply buy nuclear weapons from their Pakistani ally.  Israel’s Prime Minister Netanyahu has repeatedly pleaded with President Obama to abandon such a deal with Iran, as the state of Israel’s very existence is at stake should Iran obtain a working nuclear weapon.

President Obama has seemingly refused to listen to our friend in Israel and other allies in the Middle East.  Clearly he knows better than they do about what is best, as he continues with this foolish and unverifiable agreement that Iran is, historically speaking,  absolutely certain to break.  Press Secretary Josh Earnest assures us that President Obama is willing to walk away from the negotiating table if a deal cannot be struck.  He would rather have no deal than a bad deal, according to Mr. Earnest.  This, of course, begs the question of just what the hell they consider a “bad deal”.

This “oral deal”, as the Iranians are loathe to put anything in print, has been continuously altered over the course of negotiations, and always in Iran’s favor.  Iran is allowed to keep its centrifuges, which are needed to enrich uranium to levels necessary only for weapons grade material.  Its stock of enriched uranium was supposed to be sent to Russia for holding, but that too has been a point that Iran has reneged upon recently.  It is estimated that Iran could have a working nuclear weapon in less than a year, and in all likelihood probably much sooner.

President Obama’s desire for a deal – for some sort of legacy in the Middle East – is exceptionally dangerous.  Like Britain’s Neville Chamberlain negotiating with the Nazis in order to have “peace in their time,” it seems our President Obama is foolishly following the same course and is destined to repeat  history.  We need to stop thinking as Westerners and instead look at the world through the eyes of the Iranians with their perceptions of what America represents.  Only by doing this will we see what a horrifically bad idea striking such a “deal” with Iran will be.



UPDATE 4/1/2015: As a deal was not able to be reached with Iran by the March 31st deadline, President Obama has extended the time line for negotiations to today, April 1st, 2015.  This is despite Secretary Kerry ruling out any extension of talks with Iran back in February of this year, as per the Washington Post.  Evidently, the desire for a bad deal is just too enticing for President Obama to walk away from.

Ben Stein on the "Arab Spring in the Middle East"

The always brilliant Ben Stein lays out his concerns and fears that the "Arab Spring" uprisings that are occurring throughout the Middle East is not a movement that is favorable to democracy, freedom, and the United States. 

He echoes what I have also feared, that Iran is a large and ever more influential player in this vital region of the world.  Their increased power and hegemony throughout the Middle East will only serve to further endanger our ally Israel and indeed our own world interests in the very near future if such "democratic uprisings" continue unabated when al Qaida and the Muslim Brotherhood are often found at the root of such events. 

Our apparent ignorance regarding the significance of these events is to our own great peril.  As Mr. Stein says, our help of these uprisings will amount to the equivalent of when the Shah of Iran was overthrown by the Ayatollah Khomeini, because that worked out well for the United States, not to mention the good people of Iran.

The Deadly Threat of a Nuclear-Armed Iran

From time to time over the past years I have run into these full page ads in various political magazines from this organization named FLAME.  (Facts and logic about the Middle East)  The group is unapologetically pro-Israel and I have found their adds to be quite informative and upon further research, quite accurate. 

The latest one I came across is regarding the subject of Iran and their impending creation of a working nuclear weapon.  This is something that America and the world have seem to have dealt with in true ostrich fashion.  The time left for dealing with this critical issue is definitely running out and the repercussions of a nuclear armed Iran will be disastrous for America and possibly nation ending for Israel.  See Flame's ad below for more information.

http://www.factsandlogic.org/ad_109.html

Iran’s president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, has declared publicly – not once, but repeatedly – that Israel must be “wiped off the map.” That effort, the destruction of Israel, seems to be the main goal of Iranian policy. When Iranian missiles are paraded through the streets of Tehran, the destination “to Jerusalem” is clearly stenciled on them.

What are the facts?

A death wish for Israel. Ahmadinejad and the ayatollah who is the “supreme leader” have publicly mused that one or two nuclear bombs would obliterate Israel, but that, though it would cause devastating damage and millions of casualties, Iran would survive Israel’s retaliatory attack. Iran is a huge country, with about 60 million inhabitants, so they are probably correct. And who can doubt that those religious fanatics would not hesitate to allow the destruction of much of their country and to sacrifice a third or even one-half of their population in order to eliminate the hated Jewish state? When our country was entangled with the Soviet Union in the bitter 40-year long “cold war,” with both sides having sufficient nuclear weapons to destroy the opponent’s country and its people, things were kept in place by MAD – Mutually Assured Destruction. However “evil” the leaders of the Soviet Union (the “Evil Empire”) may have been, there was one great consolation and assurance: They were not crazy. But the Iranians and other Muslims are crazies, as we understand the concept. Because they take instructions directly from Allah, who tells them to kill the Jews and other infidels, whatever the cost.

Israel has no problem with Iran. They share no borders and have no territorial dispute. In fact, they face common Arab enemies and should be natural allies, as they indeed were under the Shah. Iran’s death wish for Israel is based entirely on religious fanaticism. In contrast even to the intractable North Koreans, the determination of the Iranians is immutable. It cannot be changed by persuasion, by diplomacy, by sanctions or by threats.

Once Iran is in possession of nuclear weapons, it will not only be a deadly danger to Israel, but to all of the Middle East and to virtually all of Europe. The flow of oil from the Middle East, the lifeblood of the industrialized world, would be totally under its control and so would be the economies of all nations of the world, very much including the United States.

What is to be done? In 1981, then prime minister of Israel Menachem Begin, being aware of Iraq’s nuclear ambitions and looming realization of those ambitions, decided that its nuclear reactor at Osiraq had to be destroyed. The IAF (Israeli Air Force) accomplished that in a daring and unprecedented raid. Iraq’s nuclear capability was eliminated in one stroke, never to rise up again. Israel had done the world an enormous service. Had it not been for Israel’s decisive action, the Iraqi conquest of Kuwait and, without question, also of Saudi Arabia and its enormous oil fields, and, for that matter, of Iran, could not have been prevented. Saddam Hussein would have been the ruler of the world.

The solution to the deadly threat that Iran poses to the world is obvious. Of course, diplomacy and persuasion, threats and promises, sticks and carrots – every possible means short of military action – should be used until it becomes clear even to the most obdurate that nothing can deviate Iran from its chosen path of becoming a nuclear power and to dominate the Middle East.

There is reason to believe that the people of Iran, especially the young people, oppose the oppressive and theocratic regime of their country and are hostile to the mullahs who control everything. But the government has the tools of power firmly in its hands. It controls the instruments of coercion – it can kill people and it controls the oil money. While it would be most desirable and in the interest of the world to be able to foment an overthrow of the Iranian regime, that is an unrealistic and unattainable prospect.

Regrettably, there is only one solution to the terrible dilemma confronting the world, the unacceptable danger of a nuclear-armed Iran. The terror, the destruction and the 60 million dead of World War II could have been prevented at several times during the Nazi regime. But the Allied powers, under the leadership of Britain’s prime minister Neville Chamberlain, opted for appeasement and for “peace in our time.” We cannot afford to make that same mistake again. The world must give Iran an ultimatum: Desist immediately from the development of nuclear weapons; if you do not, we shall destroy the facilities that produce them. There still is a window of opportunity to do that. That window may close very soon. But who would do the job? The United States would be the obvious choice. But if the United States were in accord, Israel could do it, just as it did the job in 1981 in destroying Iraq’s nuclear potential once and for all.

An attack on the Iranian nuclear installations would fall under the heading of “anticipatory self-defense,” recognized and sanctioned by international law and by common sense. Nobody really knows for sure how far Iran is from reaching its goal — six months. six years? The experts disagree. But if Iran is not stopped now, it may well be too late not very long from now.

Facts and Logic About the Middle East
P.O. Box 590359
San Francisco, CA 94159

Gerardo Joffe, President

Iran Can Not Be Allowed to Acquire Nukes

Time is quickly running out as Iran gets ever closer to developing a nuclear weapon. Never mind that they claim their nuclear program is strictly for power generation purposes. Nobody with any sense bought that ridiculous claim to begin with considering their country is floating on a sea of oil. The intent all along has been to develop weaponry.

The problem is that our country, under both the Bush and the Obama administrations, have dithered and done nothing of consequence to halt Iran's nuclear weapon program's progress. Both administrations have talked to the U.N. and threatened to enact sanctions in order to gain Iran's compliance with nothing to show for these efforts to date. President Obama's olive branch of talking to Iran without preconditions garnered nothing but contempt from Iran.

Iran could care less about sanctions. Their mullahs that make up the country's leadership, their psychotic president Ahmadinejad, and their Revolutionary Guard military are all very much in favor of acquiring nuclear weapons regardless of sanctions or world condemnation.

While reading comments on a posting at the blog Major Conflict, it was suggested by one of the commenters that certainly Iran would not actually use nukes for fear of being retaliated against in a mutually assured destruction scenario. The commenter reasoned that this had managed to keep the balance of power with the Soviets and every other nuke-possessing country since the advent of these weapons. Let me say right not, MAD will not deter the Iranians, should they be allowed to build a working nuclear bomb.

Why? Well, as Iran's President Ahmadinejad has stated unambiguously and repeatedly, he wants to destroy Israel and "wipe it off the map". He believes, as does the rest of Iran's leadership, that this will hasten the end of times and the coming of their 12th Imam to unite the world under the Islamic religion and Sharia (Koranic) law.

They do not care if they are attacked in retaliation. These fanatics do not fear death, and in fact welcome it if they can kill the "enemies of Allah" in doing so. By this way, they become martyrs and will live in paradise, so if destroying the small Satan of Israel is the cost of their martyrdom and the ushering in of the 12th Imam and world-wide Islamic law, then the ends justify the cost in their minds.

This is why negotiations will not work here, not that they worked with North Korea either. By going through the motions of diplomacy, we only allow Iran more time to come to fruition of their evil intentions. The years wasted to date on diplomacy has gotten us no closer to a favorable solution then when we first started the process.

Further, if Iran is allowed to attain nuclear capability, the rest of the Arab world will actively be trying to attain nukes to maintain the tenuous balance of power there. It is certain that largely Sunni Saudi Arabia will want nukes to protect it from the Shite Iranian regime. Egypt also will likely seek nukes to offset Iranian power from it and its puppet state of Syria.

It is time for an ultimatum to be issued. Iran allows international and U.S. inspectors in to any and all suspected nuclear facilities to oversee the dismantling of the program, or we will militarily destroy these facilities.

Admittedly this is not a good option, and Iran will almost certainly not relent and allow us to dismantle their program. As we have allowed them to advance to this late stage in their program, we really do not have any good options.

Attacking Iran's nuke facilities will have serious repercussions. Not attacking them, and allowing them to achieve nuclear status will have far greater repercussions for the world. This MUST be addressed right now and yet I am quite certain the Obama administration will not step in and prevent this from happening until it is way too late. This puts the region, and indeed the entire world in an extremely precarious situation if we do not act NOW. Please Mr. President, do not dither any longer on this issue!